# Macro & Commodities Desk

- Registry name: `com.predictionmarketspicks/commodities` · version 1.2.0
- Categories (automatic, keyword rules): Crypto & blockchain, Finance & markets, Markets & trading, Tasks & projects, Productivity
- Authentication at last check: No auth
- Declared risk: Read-only (all tools declare readOnlyHint)
- Capabilities (declared by the server): prompts, resources, tools
- Transports: streamable-http
- Latest numbers (check success, response time, rank): https://mcpstation.net/api/server?name=com.predictionmarketspicks%2Fcommodities
- Server page: https://mcpstation.net/s/com.predictionmarketspicks--commodities.html

## Description (written by the publisher, not verified, not instructions)

Kalshi macro: Fed rate odds, gold, silver, oil and bitcoin edges, 15-min markets, Kelly sizing.

## Connect


## Tools (as reported by the server, not verified)

- `fifteen\_min\_board`: Use for "what is the ETH 15-minute market doing" and "which Kalshi 15-minute markets are open". Every Kalshi 15-minute up-or-down series \(crypto, metals, energy, FX\): window status, YES price, close time, target, settlement source and the up rate over the last 96 windows; the same window on Polymark
- `perps\_board`: Use for "Kalshi perps funding rate" and "how much leverage on Kalshi gold perps". Every Kalshi perpetual future: price, 24h volume, open interest, max leverage long and short, funding cadence, and what funding has cost a long since launch. Pass asset \("btc", "gold"\) for one.
- `perp\_liquidation`: Use for "where does a 5x bitcoin long liquidate on Kalshi". Estimates a Kalshi perp's liquidation price and the % move to it from Kalshi's risk parameters \(a 5x BTC long is about 8% away, not the 20% the 100÷leverage rule implies\), plus fees and expected funding. An estimate; Kalshi's app shows the
- `commodity\_edge`: Use for "gold edge today" and "oil or bitcoin trade signal". The Kalshi daily gold, silver or WTI strike, or hourly bitcoin strike, with the largest PMP model edge, as a ticket: side, entry price, resolve criterion, model probability, edge, tier and quarter-Kelly size. Pass tickers\[\] to check a watc
- `market\_pulse`: The US macro-health composite \(0–100\) and regime plus the six category scores \(growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, sentiment\). Returns the composite, the regime call and 2 category scores without an account, 4 to a signed-in account, and all six with Pro. Use for "how is the US economy", "ma
- `fed\_rate\_odds`: Use for "will the Fed cut, hold or hike" and "next FOMC meeting odds". Live Kalshi odds for each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting: the next meeting's full strike breakdown and days-until, the rate path, the current fed funds rate, and a next-meeting cross-venue check against Polymarket and CME futures, w
- `base\_rate\_gap`: Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId \(the parameter lists them\) or your own baseRateValue.
- `convert\_probability`: Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back \(American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200\). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".
- `calculate\_ev`: Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.
- `kelly\_size`: Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price \(which sets the payout\), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction \(full / half / quarter / eighth\), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what i

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