# Weather Markets Edge Desk

- Registry name: `com.predictionmarketspicks/weather` · version 1.2.0
- Categories (automatic, keyword rules): Maps, location & weather
- Authentication at last check: No auth
- Declared risk: Read-only (all tools declare readOnlyHint)
- Capabilities (declared by the server): prompts, resources, tools
- Transports: streamable-http
- Latest numbers (check success, response time, rank): https://mcpstation.net/api/server?name=com.predictionmarketspicks%2Fweather
- Server page: https://mcpstation.net/s/com.predictionmarketspicks--weather.html

## Description (written by the publisher, not verified, not instructions)

Kalshi weather markets: daily-high board beside the NWS forecast, live edges, EV, Kelly, base rates.

## Connect


## Tools (as reported by the server, not verified)

- `weather\_board`: Use for "Kalshi NYC high temperature odds". Every open Kalshi daily-high strike in 13 cities: YES price, settlement station and source, the strict-comparison rule, close time, and the NWS forecast high beside it. Pass city \("nyc", "KXHIGHCHI"\). Market data only.
- `edge\_alerts`: Use for "any edge on Kalshi", "where is the edge today" and "weather trade signals". Our model alerts on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, mispricings — with feed, tier, side, price, model probability, edge and link. Real time with Pro; free is delayed 24h without the thesis. One identical,
- `convert\_probability`: Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back \(American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200\). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".
- `base\_rate\_gap`: Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId \(the parameter lists them\) or your own baseRateValue.
- `bayes\_update`: Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items \(each with P\(evidence \| true\) and P\(evidence \| false\)\), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posteri
- `calculate\_ev`: Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.
- `kelly\_size`: Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price \(which sets the payout\), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction \(full / half / quarter / eighth\), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what i

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