# Russia–NATO risk ladder

- Registry name: `site.russianato/risk-ladder` · version 1.7.0
- Categories (automatic, keyword rules): Maps, location & weather, Research & knowledge, Search & data, Utilities
- Authentication at last check: No auth
- Declared risk: Read-only (all tools declare readOnlyHint)
- Capabilities (declared by the server): tools
- Transports: streamable-http
- Latest numbers (check success, response time, rank): https://mcpstation.net/api/server?name=site.russianato%2Frisk-ladder
- Server page: https://mcpstation.net/s/site.russianato--risk-ladder.html

## Description (written by the publisher, not verified, not instructions)

Russia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site.

## Connect

- streamable-http: `https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp`

## Tools (as reported by the server, not verified)

- `get\_overview`: Start here. Annual risk for the five escalation levels today, a year ago and in one year \(optimistic / baseline / pessimistic\), plus average intelligence tone per country. Every number carries its provenance \(published / model / manual\).
- `get\_risk\_ladder`: Annual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date. Past dates use the published forecast archive; future dates use the scenario model and also return cumulative risk from the data date. Optional what-if assumptions.
- `get\_forecast\_history`: Published Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation.
- `get\_intelligence\_assessments`: Public assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybrid attacks, averages by country, check dates and links.
- `get\_sources`: The 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link. Filter by type \(intel, research, method, forecast\), country or text.
- `get\_other\_forecasts`: Prediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon \(Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council\), with check dates and corrections.
- `get\_changelog`: Significant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history \(what was wrong, what changed, who reported it\).
- `get\_methodology`: Level definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do.

Measured by MCP Station. Methods: https://mcpstation.net/methods.html · Terms: https://mcpstation.net/terms.html