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Prediction Markets Quant

com.predictionmarketspicks/quant · v1.29.0

Measured by MCP Station

Description written by the publisher, not verified

Free, no key: NFL + NBA prop boards, NHL model, Kalshi vs Polymarket gaps, Fed odds, EV/Kelly.

Connect

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "quant": {
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=registry"
    }
  }
}

Tools as reported by the server

• fed_rate_odds
  Use for "will the Fed cut, hold or hike" and "next FOMC meeting odds". Live Kalshi odds for each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting: the next meeting's full strike breakdown and days-until, the rate path, the current fed funds rate, and a next-meeting cross-venue check against Polymarket and CME futures, w
• calculate_ev
  Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.
• kelly_size
  Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what i
• bayes_update
  Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posteri
• convert_probability
  Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".
• base_rate_gap
  Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue.
• combo_edge
  Use for "price a same-game NFL combo" and "is this combo worth it". Pass nflGame ("NYG-LAR", "Giants vs Rams") to list that game's Kalshi legs — moneyline, spreads, totals, player props — then legIds to price your pick with the correlation done for you. Or pass legPrices + trueWinProbability for a f
• nfl_power_ratings
  The PredictionMarketsPicks NFL power ratings — PWR for all 32 teams: points per game above an average team on a neutral field, where PWR = Off PR + Def PR + ST PR. Includes each team's rank and tier. Use for "best NFL teams by power rating", "NFL power rankings 2026", "is Baltimore overrated", "how
• nfl_win_probability
  Use for "who wins Chiefs vs 49ers" and "what does a -7 spread mean". Pass homeTeam + awayTeam (or game, or one team) for our QB-gated model line (raw power ratings if unscheduled), or a spread (home favored negative). Returns win, cover and over/under probability, the projected score and our own tot
• find_arbitrage
  Use for "where is the arbitrage" and "Kalshi vs Polymarket price gaps". Cross-venue gaps on the same NFL, NBA, NHL or MLB game: Kalshi against Polymarket US (the exchange US traders use, fees included), Polymarket international as a reference. Gap in pp, WATCH/ARB signal, cheaper venue, settlement_m
• market_pulse
  The US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime plus the six category scores (growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, sentiment). Returns the composite, the regime call and 2 category scores without an account, 4 to a signed-in account, and all six with Pro. Use for "how is the US economy", "ma
• commodity_edge
  Use for "gold edge today" and "oil or bitcoin trade signal". The Kalshi daily gold, silver or WTI strike, or hourly bitcoin strike, with the largest PMP model edge, as a ticket: side, entry price, resolve criterion, model probability, edge, tier and quarter-Kelly size. Pass tickers[] to check a watc
• edge_alerts
  Use for "any edge on Kalshi", "where is the edge today" and "weather trade signals". Our model alerts on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, mispricings — with feed, tier, side, price, model probability, edge and link. Real time with Pro; free is delayed 24h without the thesis. One identical,
• nfl_edge
  Use for "which NFL games are mispriced on Kalshi" and "NFL win total, MVP or Super Bowl edges". Our NFL model vs live Kalshi prices — this week's game positions, season win totals, MVP and championship odds: model probability, price, edge and side. tickers[] checks a watchlist (futures, mvp, champio
• nfl_prop_edge
  Use for "best NFL props today" and "receiving yards prop value". Our projection vs the Kalshi "X or more" prop line: the contract, the YES/NO call, our odds and Kalshi's price for that side, the projection and the edge, with WATCH rows labelled. Live in season. Pro — sign in with PredictionMarketsPi
• nhl_edge
  Use for "NHL predictions tonight" and "Stanley Cup odds". Tonight's NHL games on Kalshi — moneyline, puck line, totals, period markets — as Market · Model · Fair, starting goalies checked first. market=goals: anytime and first-goal contracts; market=futures: Cup, conference and division markets on K
• nfl_prop_board
  Use for "where is the best price on <player> receiving yards" and "is Kalshi cheaper than the books". Best price on every NFL prop this week: Kalshi (fee included) vs five books (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN) and the Novig and ProphetX exchanges — the best price per side, how much
• nba_prop_board
  Use for "where is LeBron's points line cheapest tonight". Every Kalshi NBA player-prop strike (points, rebounds, assists, threes) beside DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX at the same strike: the cheapest venue per side, Kalshi fee included. Market prices only, no mod
• nba_game_board
  Use for "Knicks moneyline on Kalshi vs the books" and "cheapest place for the Celtics spread tonight". Kalshi NBA moneyline, spread and total beside DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX at the same line: the cheapest venue per side, Kalshi fee included. Market prices on
• nba_injury_impact
  Use for "Embiid's out tonight — who benefits?" and "who's out in the NBA today". Today's NBA absences from the official injury report, and for each absent star the teammates whose minutes, points, rebounds, assists and usage rose in past games without him (last two seasons, sample size on every row)
• nfl_ladder
  Use for "where does the model disagree with Kalshi on the Rams spread" and "biggest ladder gaps this week". Every NFL strike ladder — spreads, season win totals, player props — with Kalshi's price at each strike beside our distribution and a SHAPE / LOCATION / PRICED / PARTIAL verdict. Our number is
• ladder_arb
  Use for "is any CFB ladder mispriced" and "where can I make a market on Kalshi". Kalshi college football and NFL spread/total strikes priced out of order: locked arbitrage, crossed-mid inversions and wide books worth making a market in, with both tickers and books, gross edge, volume and tier. Pro a
• fifteen_min_board
  Use for "what is the ETH 15-minute market doing" and "which Kalshi 15-minute markets are open". Every Kalshi 15-minute up-or-down series (crypto, metals, energy, FX): window status, YES price, close time, target, settlement source and the up rate over the last 96 windows; the same window on Polymark
• weather_board
  Use for "Kalshi NYC high temperature odds". Every open Kalshi daily-high strike in 13 cities: YES price, settlement station and source, the strict-comparison rule, close time, and the NWS forecast high beside it. Pass city ("nyc", "KXHIGHCHI"). Market data only.
• track_record
  Use for "how accurate is your model" and "what's your track record". Every graded PredictionMarketsPicks signal per engine (bitcoin, gold, silver, oil, weather, NHL) and the daily editorial call (POTD): W-L, net P/L, a 95% win-rate range and the current model era, and the NFL model's 2026 live recor
• my_league
  Use for "show my fantasy team" and "what is Kalshi pricing my starters at". Give a Sleeper username (and a league name if you have several): your roster, each starter's opponent and kickoff, OUT and QB-gate flags, and every Kalshi prop strike on him this week with the best price per side. Market dat
• start_sit
  Use for "should I start Nacua or Adams" and "who does the market like more this week". For 2–4 players: the median Kalshi is pricing for each stat (read off his own strike ladder) and his anytime-TD price, compared on the stats they share. Market prices only — the call stays yours; Pro adds our week
• waiver_targets
  Use for "who is everyone adding off waivers" and "trending waiver adds this week". Sleeper's most-added players in the last 24 hours with what Kalshi is pricing each at this week; pass position, and a Sleeper username + league to see only players still available. Market data only.
• perps_board
  Use for "Kalshi perps funding rate" and "how much leverage on Kalshi gold perps". Every Kalshi perpetual future: price, 24h volume, open interest, max leverage long and short, funding cadence, and what funding has cost a long since launch. Pass asset ("btc", "gold") for one.
• perp_liquidation
  Use for "where does a 5x bitcoin long liquidate on Kalshi". Estimates a Kalshi perp's liquidation price and the % move to it from Kalshi's risk parameters (a 5x BTC long is about 8% away, not the 20% the 100÷leverage rule implies), plus fees and expected funding. An estimate; Kalshi's app shows the
• senate_map
  Use for "2026 Senate map" and "which Senate seats are toss-ups". Every 2026 Senate seat: holder and role, structure rating, forecaster bands where tracked, and the live Kalshi price (Democrat win probability where provable), closest race first, with a page URL per seat. Prices are never estimated —
• race_odds
  Use for "who wins the Kansas Senate race" and "Michigan governor odds". Live Kalshi odds for one 2026 Senate, governor or competitive House race, by state, code, slug or district ("TX-34"): every leg's price, volume and link, the seat holder and rating, forecaster bands, and the race page. Prices ar
• best_price
  Use for "where is it cheapest to buy", "Kalshi or Polymarket US for the Bears game" and "cheapest venue for the Georgia Senate race". The same contract on Kalshi, Polymarket US and Novig as the cost to buy one contract including each venue's taker fee, with the cheapest named. Sports games (team, le
• player_outlook
  One NFL player this week — every Kalshi prop line, the best price across venues, and our probability at each strike. Free. Use for "is <player> a good play this week", "<player> props".
• explain_player
  Why our model prices an NFL player's Kalshi prop strikes where it does this week: the projection, The Ladder's verdict, the widest published gap, and what the model does not account for (our number only where calibrated, 30–70%). Use for "why do you price <player> there", "explain <player>'s prop".
• explain_game
  Why our model prices one NFL game where it does: Kalshi price and market line, our win probability and its anchor, the model's lean in points, each team's offense/defense/special-teams rating, the QB gate, and the published position or why none. Use for "why do you price <team> vs <team> there", "ex
• explain_prop
  Why we publish a call on one NFL player prop this week: the contract, the YES/NO call and Kalshi's price, our tier (and calibrated odds where measured), our projection vs the threshold, published or held at WATCH and why, and what the model does not account for. Use for "why do you like <player>'s o
• explain_ladder
  Why The Ladder reads one NFL strike ladder (a game spread, a season win total or a player prop) the way it does: the read in words, where Kalshi's ladder centres beside our projection, the widest published gap, and each strike with Kalshi's price and our number (30–70% only). Use for "explain the Ch
• sleepers_and_busts
  Every NFL player whose Kalshi prop price our model disagrees with this week, ranked, marked underpriced or overpriced with the stat driving it. Free, the complete list. The strike, price and size are in Pro nfl_prop_edge. Use for "undervalued players this week", "who is the market overpricing", "sle

Tool changes

• 2026-10-24: fed_rate_odds, calculate_ev, kelly_size, bayes_update, convert_probability, base_rate_gap, combo_edge, nfl_power_ratings, nfl_win_probability, find_arbitrage, market_pulse, commodity_edge
• 2026-10-23: fed_rate_odds, calculate_ev, kelly_size, bayes_update, convert_probability, base_rate_gap, combo_edge, nfl_power_ratings, nfl_win_probability, find_arbitrage, market_pulse, commodity_edge
• 2026-10-16: fed_rate_odds, calculate_ev, kelly_size, bayes_update, convert_probability, base_rate_gap, combo_edge, nfl_power_ratings, nfl_win_probability, find_arbitrage, market_pulse, commodity_edge

Repository · Website · JSON · Text for agents · Registry updated 2026-10-23