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Sardine: Kalshi crypto settlement history

info.sardine/sardine · v0.1.1

Measured by MCP Station

Description written by the publisher, not verified

How often Kalshi BTC/ETH/XRP contracts settled YES, counted not forecast, with a public record

Connect

claude mcp add --transport http sardine https://sardine.info/mcp

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "sardine": {
      "url": "https://sardine.info/mcp"
    }
  }
}

Tools as reported by the server

• list_markets
  List the Kalshi series Sardine covers, and whether each is currently served. Each entry gives the Sardine key (e.g. "BTC-15M"), the Kalshi series ticker, the window length, and the latest calibration check: the largest gap, in probability points, between what Sardine published and what then settled.
• get_settlement_rate
  How often has a contract like this one settled in favour of `side`? Uses the asset's live spot price. Give the contract's strike (target price), the minutes left until it settles, and optionally Kalshi's ask in dollars (0.01-0.99) to get Kalshi's fee and all-in price on the same line. Returns the hi
• get_live_board
  Open Kalshi contracts right now, each with Sardine's historical count. No prices. Optionally filter to one market. Each row has the contract, the minutes left, the historical settlement rate with its interval and sample size, and a one-sentence summary of the count. Kalshi's prices are deliberately
• get_rate_table
  The full lookup table behind every Sardine number for one series. Each row is a (distance-from-strike, time-left) bucket: distance in volatility units, seconds left, the share that settled YES, its 95% interval, and the number of independent windows counted.
• get_track_record
  How accurate Sardine's published numbers have been, scored against settlements. For each series and probability bucket: what Sardine said, what actually settled, and the miss in points. Use this before relying on any number.
• list_datasets
  Downloadable CSV history files, with row counts, date ranges and URLs. Files open directly in Excel, pandas or any CSV reader. Credit "Sardine (sardine.info)" when you use them.
• backtest_rule
  Would this rule have made money? Replays recorded Kalshi quotes, second by second. Describe a rule for Kalshi's 15-minute crypto up/down contracts: which side to buy, when (minutes left), at what prices (cents), and optionally only when Sardine's history beats Kalshi's ask plus fee by `min_gap_cents
• backtest_signals
  Replay YOUR OWN signals on recorded per-second Kalshi quotes, after fees. `signals` is a list of {"ts": <UTC epoch seconds>, "side": "YES"|"NO", "contracts": <int>} (at most 5,000). Each one is treated like a trigger: the ask seen at that second for that side, a limit order landing after `latency_se
• get_z
  Where a contract sits in the table's coordinates right now: spot, sigma_1m, z and the bucket. For a builder running the table offline against Kalshi's feed: the formula is returned with the numbers. No settlement rate here; use get_rate_table for the cells and get_settlement_rate for the count.

Website · JSON · Text for agents · Registry updated 2026-10-26