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Macro & Commodities Desk

com.predictionmarketspicks/commodities · v1.2.0

Measured by MCP Station

Description written by the publisher, not verified

Kalshi macro: Fed rate odds, gold, silver, oil and bitcoin edges, 15-min markets, Kelly sizing.

Connect

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "commodities": {
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry"
    }
  }
}

Tools as reported by the server

• fifteen_min_board
  Use for "what is the ETH 15-minute market doing" and "which Kalshi 15-minute markets are open". Every Kalshi 15-minute up-or-down series (crypto, metals, energy, FX): window status, YES price, close time, target, settlement source and the up rate over the last 96 windows; the same window on Polymark
• perps_board
  Use for "Kalshi perps funding rate" and "how much leverage on Kalshi gold perps". Every Kalshi perpetual future: price, 24h volume, open interest, max leverage long and short, funding cadence, and what funding has cost a long since launch. Pass asset ("btc", "gold") for one.
• perp_liquidation
  Use for "where does a 5x bitcoin long liquidate on Kalshi". Estimates a Kalshi perp's liquidation price and the % move to it from Kalshi's risk parameters (a 5x BTC long is about 8% away, not the 20% the 100÷leverage rule implies), plus fees and expected funding. An estimate; Kalshi's app shows the
• commodity_edge
  Use for "gold edge today" and "oil or bitcoin trade signal". The Kalshi daily gold, silver or WTI strike, or hourly bitcoin strike, with the largest PMP model edge, as a ticket: side, entry price, resolve criterion, model probability, edge, tier and quarter-Kelly size. Pass tickers[] to check a watc
• market_pulse
  The US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime plus the six category scores (growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, sentiment). Returns the composite, the regime call and 2 category scores without an account, 4 to a signed-in account, and all six with Pro. Use for "how is the US economy", "ma
• fed_rate_odds
  Use for "will the Fed cut, hold or hike" and "next FOMC meeting odds". Live Kalshi odds for each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting: the next meeting's full strike breakdown and days-until, the rate path, the current fed funds rate, and a next-meeting cross-venue check against Polymarket and CME futures, w
• base_rate_gap
  Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue.
• convert_probability
  Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".
• calculate_ev
  Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.
• kelly_size
  Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what i

Tool changes

• 2026-10-24: fifteen_min_board, perps_board, perp_liquidation, commodity_edge, market_pulse, fed_rate_odds, base_rate_gap, convert_probability, calculate_ev, kelly_size
• 2026-10-16: fifteen_min_board, perps_board, perp_liquidation, commodity_edge, market_pulse, fed_rate_odds, base_rate_gap, convert_probability, calculate_ev, kelly_size

Repository · Website · JSON · Text for agents · Registry updated 2026-10-13