All servers · Maps, location & weather

Weather Markets Edge Desk

com.predictionmarketspicks/weather · v1.2.0

Measured by MCP Station

Description written by the publisher, not verified

Kalshi weather markets: daily-high board beside the NWS forecast, live edges, EV, Kelly, base rates.

Connect

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "weather": {
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
    }
  }
}

Tools as reported by the server

• weather_board
  Use for "Kalshi NYC high temperature odds". Every open Kalshi daily-high strike in 13 cities: YES price, settlement station and source, the strict-comparison rule, close time, and the NWS forecast high beside it. Pass city ("nyc", "KXHIGHCHI"). Market data only.
• edge_alerts
  Use for "any edge on Kalshi", "where is the edge today" and "weather trade signals". Our model alerts on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, mispricings — with feed, tier, side, price, model probability, edge and link. Real time with Pro; free is delayed 24h without the thesis. One identical,
• convert_probability
  Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".
• base_rate_gap
  Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue.
• bayes_update
  Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posteri
• calculate_ev
  Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.
• kelly_size
  Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what i

Tool changes

• 2026-10-24: weather_board, edge_alerts, convert_probability, base_rate_gap, bayes_update, calculate_ev, kelly_size
• 2026-10-16: weather_board, edge_alerts, convert_probability, base_rate_gap, bayes_update, calculate_ev, kelly_size

Repository · Website · JSON · Text for agents · Registry updated 2026-10-13