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Russia–NATO risk ladder

site.russianato/risk-ladder · v1.7.0

Measured by MCP Station

Description written by the publisher, not verified

Russia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site.

Connect

claude mcp add --transport http risk-ladder https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "risk-ladder": {
      "url": "https://mcp.russianato.site/mcp"
    }
  }
}

Tools as reported by the server

• get_overview
  Start here. Annual risk for the five escalation levels today, a year ago and in one year (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic), plus average intelligence tone per country. Every number carries its provenance (published / model / manual).
• get_risk_ladder
  Annual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date. Past dates use the published forecast archive; future dates use the scenario model and also return cumulative risk from the data date. Optional what-if assumptions.
• get_forecast_history
  Published Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation.
• get_intelligence_assessments
  Public assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybrid attacks, averages by country, check dates and links.
• get_sources
  The 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link. Filter by type (intel, research, method, forecast), country or text.
• get_other_forecasts
  Prediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon (Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council), with check dates and corrections.
• get_changelog
  Significant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it).
• get_methodology
  Level definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do.

Website · JSON · Text for agents · Registry updated 2026-10-15